New Energy Vehicle Market Structure or Facing "Four Transitions"

On April 15, the 2009 China (Shanghai) Intelligence and New Energy Vehicle Summit, sponsored by five universities such as Shanghai Jiaotong University, was held. Under the dual effects of national policy and industry demand, the trend of automotive electrification is accelerating. However, facing the situation of subsidies declining and industry competition intensifying, how to promote the sustainable development of new energy vehicles more effectively is becoming a topic of general concern in the industry.

During the meeting, Yin Dan, deputy director of the Economic Consulting Center of the National Information Center, put forward the "four transformations" of the market structure of new energy automobiles. The first is the transformation of new energy vehicles from merchants to passengers; the second is the transformation of new energy vehicles from public to private purchases. The third is the transformation from restricted city to non-restricted city; the fourth is the transformation from independent brand domination to the competition between China and foreign countries.

Specifically, first of all, 2009-2012 is the first demonstration period for the promotion of new energy vehicles in China. At that time, both passenger vehicles and commercial vehicles were developed equally. However, since 2016, the development of new energy passenger vehicles has accelerated significantly and has been in a relatively dominant position. Passenger cars accounted for 84.2% of new energy vehicles in 2018, compared with 51.2% in 2011.

Secondly, the main body of new energy automobile consumption is changing from public domain/unit user to private purchase. According to the statistics of the National Information Center, the proportion of domestic new energy automobile users per unit is 71.6% in 2015, and only 26.0% in 2018.

Thirdly, the consumption area of new energy automobiles is expanding from restricted cities to non-restricted cities. Yindan believes that there are two factors that affect the consumption of new energy automobiles. One is the policy issued by the state to promote the purchase of private consumers; the other is that the new energy products themselves are developing better and more consumers are buying new energy automobiles spontaneously.

Finally, under the dual-point policy, multinational corporations are making efforts in China's new energy automobile market, which will also affect the share of independent brands. Obviously, domestic new energy automobiles are changing from the dominance of independent brands to the trend of domestic and foreign competition, but this will also have a significant jump in the promotion of domestic sales of new energy automobiles.