New energy vehicles are becoming more rational in the competition

At present, China's new energy automobile industry has become the biggest engine to promote the development of the global new energy vehicle market. China has been ranked as the world's largest producer of new energy vehicles for three consecutive years.

New energy vehicles are shifting from a policy-driven to a market-driven one. With the comprehensive subsidy of the subsidy new policy and the "double points" policy, market competition has become increasingly hot. At the same time, both the market growth and investment enthusiasm have shown a triumphant trend.

In 2017, China's new energy vehicle sales reached nearly 800,000 units. From January to September this year, the production and sales volume of new energy vehicles has exceeded 700,000 units, with a year-on-year growth rate of 73% and 81.1% respectively. At this rhythm alone, achieving the goal of selling more than one million units in 2018 and over 2 million units in 2020 is not difficult.

In the first half of this year, China's new energy vehicle sales accounted for more than 50% of the global total. Eight auto brands, including BYD and Beiqi New Energy, entered the top 20 global new energy vehicle brand sales. At the same time, the new power of the car has risen rapidly. At present, more than 200 new car-making enterprises are making great strides in the field of new energy vehicles. The investment amount and production capacity planned by this new force are more than 100 billion yuan and 10 million vehicles respectively.

At the same time, the pace of upgrading the industry's consumption upgrades has accelerated, the development space and format have ushered in diversification, and the investment opportunities and space in the industry chain have also increased. However, China's new energy automobile industry chain is also facing the impact of domestic and international forces, and the game continues.

At present, the new energy automobile industry generally presents the following three trends.

First, the state's support for the industry remains unchanged.

The new energy automobile industry is an important driving force for upgrading the upgrading of China's automobile industry, and the state's support for the industry will remain unchanged. At present, the ministries and commissions continue to jointly launch relevant support policies, and the system has outstanding advantages. Now, various incentive policies such as incentives, restraints, guarantees, management norms, and industrial guidance have been formulated for new energy vehicles, and the system is complete. The supporting facilities are increasingly perfect.

Whether it is the "Energy Conservation and New Energy Vehicle Development Plan (2012-2020)" issued earlier, or the major policy of "The Medium and Long-term Development Plan of the Automobile Industry" issued last year, it has released an important signal that electric vehicles are the country. The established industrial strategy and policy direction will not waver in the direction of promoting its sustainable and healthy development. These policies are promoting the healthy and orderly development of the industry from multiple dimensions and will benefit the new energy automobile industry in the long run.

Second, the supervision of various industrial policies has been tightened.

Under the circumstances that the national policy support is unchanged, the new energy auto industry has begun to have problems such as disorderly expansion and low-level competition, including speculation in recent years. In this regard, the regulatory measures of relevant state ministries and commissions are becoming increasingly standardized and strict.

Since 2018, the financial subsidy policy for the promotion and application of new energy vehicles has been further adjusted and improved. The subsidy technology threshold has been improved a lot, and the technical indicators and gear positions such as mileage, battery energy density and energy consumption subsidies have been refined. The “double points” policy has also begun to be implemented.

Financial subsidies are not the "Tang Yu meat" that is immortal. The development bonus of new energy vehicles is not the "winding" that all entrants can take. In 2016 and 2017, there were only about 350,000 new energy vehicles approved by experts, and the total sales of new energy vehicles in the past two years was about 1.28 million. According to this calculation, more than 900,000 vehicles sold in the two years have not yet received subsidies. In the passenger vehicle sector, the A0 and A00 models, which account for more than 70% of the sales of electric vehicles, are under heavy pressure due to the cancellation of subsidies for electric vehicles with a driving range of less than 150 kilometers.

The "Regulations on Investment Management of Automobile Industry (Draft for Comment)" issued by the National Development and Reform Commission aims to further improve the access standards for investment projects in the automobile industry, strictly control the investment behavior of market entities, guide the rational injection of social capital, and prevent blind construction and disorderly development. Promote the shift of new energy vehicles to high quality growth. The document also strictly regulates the qualifications, scale, geography and production standards of new energy vehicle projects.

Third, the industry is more shuffled and the market risk is gradually increasing.

At present, the market expansion of traditional fuel vehicles is gradually limited and blocked. Under the dual promotion of the subsidy new policy and the “double points” policy, more traditional car companies will enter the field of new energy vehicles. With the tightening of policies, the reshuffle of the industry, the increasingly fierce competition, and the increasing risks are inevitable. In this era of unpredictable market and "squid", no one can really sit on the "Diaoyutai". If you slack off, you may lose sand.

On the one hand, after allowing foreign investors to establish wholly-owned new energy automobile enterprises, China will become a gathering place for the international new energy automobile industry. China's electric vehicle market is becoming a “hot enthusiasm” favored by overseas car companies. Well-known foreign-funded vehicle companies such as Tesla and foreign-funded battery manufacturers such as Samsung, LG and Panasonic have all landed in China's new energy vehicle market. The resulting “squid effect” broke the original industrial structure and brought greater pressure and challenges to independent brand new energy vehicle manufacturers and parts enterprises. In particular, foreign-funded lithium suppliers are more advanced in terms of large-scale procurement of raw materials, quality control of production processes, and high automation of production processes. In addition, under the market environment in which subsidies have been fully degraded, the real contest of China's power battery industry has just begun.

On the other hand, at present, a large number of new Internet-powered vehicles such as Weilai, Xiaopeng, Chehejia and Singularity have poured into the field of new energy vehicles, and have entered the trial production stage or delivered from the earlier “PPT-making” stage. stage. This batch of "new-car sports new-born", with the "new car sports tradition" represented by Beiqi, Jiangling, Chery, Hezhong, Yundu, etc., as well as "cross-border" represented by Weimar, Future, and Baiteng Transforming and building a new army, has formed a strong position.

In 2018, it was called "the first year of the new power of the car". If the new car sports are compared to the football game, it will be a warm-up stage before, and then it will enter the official "fight". In fact, even for the new forces of the car itself, it is undergoing a severe test. They are getting closer and closer to the "bone-eye" of product delivery, but most of them are constrained by qualifications, foundry, channels, etc., and the delivery of production cars will encounter difficulties. If the new car delivery cannot be completed on time, it will have a great impact on the next step of financing and other work.

At the same time, the node that has completely subsided the subsidies for new energy vehicles in 2020 is approaching. These superimposed factors are like the "Sword of Damocles" hanging overhead, which can be a heavy blow to the company at any time. “The golden sand begins to see gold”, and those new energy companies that are blown up by the wind will eventually be photographed on the beach by the big waves. The last company to stay is the so-called “real gold”, and the number will be very few.

In 2020, the new energy auto industry will usher in the peak period of mergers and acquisitions. In the current "Autumn of Life and Death", if the new energy automobile industry needs to show its talents, how to take the initiative, what dimensions should we grasp? This is also a major issue facing the car companies. The author believes that the development of China's new energy automobile industry will become more rational in the fierce competition.