New energy vehicles and power battery companies will have higher integration in the future

With the help of policies and markets, China has developed into the world's largest new energy vehicle production and marketing market. With the rapid expansion of the scale of new energy vehicles and power battery industry, some new problems and new situations in the industry are gradually emerging. On the other hand, subsidy support policies are accelerating, and international car companies and battery companies are arranging the Chinese market. Competition is intensifying. . At the "2018 First New Energy Vehicle and Power Battery (CIBF Shenzhen) International Exchange Conference" held recently, Wu Zhixin, deputy general manager of China Automotive Technology and Research Center Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "China Automobile Research Institute") accepted the battery China network. The exclusive interview gave an opinion on the development status of China's new energy vehicles and power battery industry, the hot issues in the industry and the development trend of the industry.

Industrial agglomeration effect

The rapid rise of the new energy automobile industry has also driven the development of related industries in the industrial chain such as power batteries and lithium battery equipment. Wu Zhixin said that in the past few years, the domestic power battery industry not only lags behind Japan and South Korea in technology, but also basically needs to import from Japan and South Korea. China has a relatively early layout in the new energy automobile industry and has strong policy support. The key component industry chain of domestic new energy vehicles and power batteries has gradually formed. The current industrial chain is in the level of technological innovation, product quality and intelligent production line. Great progress has been made. Some of the links have already been targeted at Japan and South Korea, and even catch up with them, and they are moving closer to the dominant enterprises.

According to the statistics of the Power Battery Application Branch of the China Chemical and Physical Power Industry Association, the installed capacity of the top 10 power battery companies in the national installed capacity in 2017 accounted for 71% of the total installed capacity, while the top 20 enterprises accounted for the proportion of installed capacity. 87%. “In 2016, there were more than 200 power battery companies in China, which will be reduced to more than 100 by 2017. This means that the remaining 890 companies share less than 20% of the market share, and the power battery industry agglomeration effect appears. The industrial concentration has increased rapidly." Wu Zhixin further added that only by gathering, can we have benefits and be competitive, and the entire industry can end the mixed situation and enter a healthy development track. He believes that the number of power battery companies in 2018 is likely to shrink further.

Overcapacity is a false proposition

The latest data from the China Automobile Association shows that China's new energy vehicle sales in the first five months of this year were 328,000, while China's automobile sales reached 11.7922 million in the same period. Wu Zhixin said that at present everyone is saying that there is excess capacity, but overcapacity is a false proposition. It is necessary to pay attention to distinguishing the staged excess and structural excess of the power battery industry. "At present, the proportion of new energy vehicles is less than 3%. If the proportion reaches 10%, then the current power battery capacity is completely insufficient. In the short term, such overcapacity should be the inevitable result of the market economy; but at the same time we must be wary of the structure. Excessive, with the gradual increase of energy density of power batteries, we advocate multi-line high-end capacity projects, low-end production capacity will be eliminated." Wu Zhixin added that the vehicle deployment of vehicle companies will take some time, battery companies must deploy capacity in advance Otherwise, when the large-scale demand comes, it will not keep up with the rhythm of the whole vehicle company. At the same time, he also pointed out that thanks to the development of new energy vehicles, the cost of power batteries has dropped sharply compared with the previous ones, which also provides opportunities for the promotion and application of power batteries in other industries.

Industry standard system needs to be established

The types, specifications and sizes of power batteries on the market are relatively large, which is extremely inconvenient for the wide application of batteries in automobiles, energy storage and other fields. The power battery standard system needs to be established. Wu Zhixin believes that in the field of automobiles and power batteries, there may be some leading enterprises that influence the market through their own product standards, and are gradually accepted by customers and industry chain related companies, and gradually form some common standards of the industry; in addition, the government, associations and enterprises To ensure the healthy development of the industry, we will also promote the formulation of some industry standards and policies through communication and coordination. He also believes that as the power battery industry matures, the final battery specifications on the market will be similar to those of flashlight batteries, forming batteries similar to those of the first, second, fifth, and seventh specifications.

In addition, the development of battery standards is also conducive to the use of the battery life cycle. With the power battery of the early new energy vehicle assembly ushered in the tide of retiring, the use of power battery ladders has also received more and more attention. Wu Zhixin pointed out that at this stage, battery ladder utilization still faces difficulties such as battery specifications, inconsistent size, and high cost of decommissioning battery evaluation. Wu Zhixin said that on the one hand, at the beginning of the design and production of the battery, it is necessary to have corresponding standards and technical specifications, so that the battery can be decommissioned from the vehicle, and can be directly applied in the field of energy storage, reducing the disassembly, welding and assembly, and reducing costs; On the other hand, decommissioned batteries must also handle the problem of responsibility transfer. It also requires the government to formulate corresponding policies and regulations. For example, batteries that are removed from new energy vehicles are used in the field of energy storage, and how the responsible body of battery recycling is transferred. In addition, he also stressed that if the cost of decommissioning battery performance evaluation is too high, there is no economic value, and there is no market.

The country cannot always protect backward enterprises

The withdrawal of China's new energy vehicle subsidies has entered the countdown in the last two years. Since April this year, Korean battery companies including South Korea's Samsung, LG and SKI have launched a new round of investment in China. Wu Zhixin said that Japan and South Korea's power battery companies started earlier, the production line automation level is relatively high, and they have advantages in technology accumulation, production management, quality control and brand effect. He said that the Chinese market will eventually be liberalized, and there is no need to panic about foreign investment in the Chinese market. During the policy cultivation period, China has cultivated international battery giants such as the Ningde era and BYD. He further explained that China is the world's largest market for power battery and new energy vehicle applications. After years of development, China has formed the most complete industrial chain. Domestic battery companies understand the whole vehicle enterprise, battery enterprise technicians and The technicians of vehicle enterprises have been docked together for a long time, and the upstream and downstream industries are more familiar. These are not available to foreign-funded enterprises and should exert these advantages. On the other hand, foreign investment will inevitably accelerate the competition of the domestic power battery industry and accelerate Power battery technology research and development, eliminate low-end backward production capacity, and promote the concentration of power battery industry. Wu Zhixin added: "National and local governments are not always able to protect backward enterprises. It is always to encourage strong people. If we do not let go now, foreign advanced enterprises will not be able to enter, and domestic battery companies may have less pressure in the short term. They will not make great efforts in technological innovation, and the foreign-funded market will eventually be released. At that time, there may be dangers of survival."

When talking about technological innovation, Wu Zhixin said that domestic enterprises should be prepared for danger, focusing on the development of basic technology and forward-looking technology. “The most basic technologies are not mastered, and the heels are always unstable.” Wu Zhixin further added: “Basic technology research and development, forward-looking technology research and development are not the same as our so-called technology research and development. The so-called technology research and development in China is product development, development and R&D. Different."

New energy vehicles and power battery companies will have higher integration in the future

How far a new energy car can go depends on how far the power battery can go. Wu Zhixin said that the power battery is the core link of the new energy automobile industry chain. The car electrification, network connection, intelligence and sharing are inseparable from the battery. In the future, the cooperation between the two will become closer and closer. Will be more in-depth. According to Wu Zhixin, in fact, before the emergence of new energy vehicles, the cooperation between foreign automakers and parts companies has been very close. International automakers such as Toyota, BMW and Mercedes-Benz have entered the Chinese market while supplying them. The system has also been brought in. These car companies have basically incorporated their suppliers into their own industrial systems, and the relationship between domestic cars and parts is very fragile. Not only that, but foreign automakers will also train their parts and components companies to help component companies improve product quality and technological innovation. Wu Zhixin said, "New energy car companies must work closely with power batteries and key component companies. They should be treated like their own skeletons. If it doesn't work, your car will definitely not work. Car companies must pay attention to it and assist it. ."

Wu Zhixin also said that the emergence of new energy vehicles has made the integration of power batteries and the automobile industry unprecedentedly improved. From the previous fundamentals, it is not known to the present, the integration is getting higher and higher, and the industrial division of labor is becoming more and more reasonable. This piece still has a lot of room for improvement. He hopes that the two will be truly integrated into a supply chain system in the future, like an aircraft carrier fleet, everyone is in the same boat, then the power battery and new energy vehicle industry will truly form a strong competitive edge.