Analysis of Development Trend of China's New Energy Automobile Industry in the Next 3-5 Years

In 2017, the output of new energy vehicles in China was 794,000, an increase of 53.8% year-on-year, accounting for only 2.74 percent of the total output of the auto industry (2902 million vehicles). The new energy automobile market is still in the early stages of development. In the future, beneficiary policies will be promoted and technological innovation will be carried out. The momentum of rapid industrial growth will continue for the next ten or even decades.

It is expected that from 2018 to 2020, the output of new energy vehicles in China will reach 1.07 million, 1.48 million, and 2.04 million vehicles respectively, maintaining a rapid growth momentum.

1. Order No. 1 of the General Office of the State Council: "Opinions on Promoting Coordinated Development of E-Commerce and Express Logistics"

Encourage express delivery to accelerate the use of new energy vehicles, and gradually increase the proportion of new energy vehicles. Guide all localities to improve the traffic management policy for urban distribution vehicles, reasonably determine the traffic area and time zone, and provide convenient access to urban delivery vehicles such as express service vehicles.

2, Jingdong, rookie and other e-commerce companies to use a large number of new energy logistics vehicles

In the past five years, the annual growth rate of express delivery in China has been maintained at a rapid growth rate of around 50%. The demand for short-distance delivery capacity in the city continues to increase significantly, bringing huge market opportunities for electric logistics vehicles that have zero emissions and are suitable for short-distance distribution.

3, electric logistics vehicle innovation business model

The overall business model of electric logistics vehicles is divided into two major categories of sales and leasing, in which the sales model is divided into two kinds of traditional distribution model and innovative direct sales model; leasing model is divided into time-share leasing, short-term and long-term leasing according to the length of leasing 3 Species.

4. The opening up of road rights, gradual details of local policies

Right of way is the core of the new energy logistics vehicle. In 2017, Shenzhen, Xi'an, Chengdu, Shanghai, etc. have successively issued road rights, and the opening of new energy logistics vehicles into the city has greatly promoted the application of new energy logistics vehicles.

5. Create "Cargo Bus System"

How do big cities solve personal mobility? The accepted approach is to reduce private cars and vigorously develop public transportation systems.

How to most effectively solve the travel of goods is also to create a “cargo bus system”. "Goods exchange" system is developed, logistics companies do not have to own a large number of vehicles, the goods are scheduled fixed point on the train, sub-station arrived just fine, so it may form an efficient, orderly, reduce idle and waste of urban cargo capacity The system can solve inherent short boards such as battery life, charging, and one-time loading.

In 2018, the probability of a jump in production and sales to 200,000 vehicles throughout the year is very high, with 400,000 vehicles in 2020.

6. Differentiated operations

According to distribution due to distribution scope and economy, choose the best delivery vehicle type.

Mainline distribution: The service radius is greater than 300 kilometers, and the medium and heavy cards will bear.

Branch distribution: The radius of service is 150-300 kilometers, and the medium or heavy trucks or light trucks are responsible.

Short-distance delivery: service radius 50-150 kilometers, by the light truck / light passenger / MPV, micro-card / micro-off to bear.

Terminal delivery: service radius 0-50 kilometers, by micro-off / MPV, three-wheeled / two-wheeled motorcycles to bear.